On the same day, Dong Shuguang expressed his views and opinions on the company’s technological product trends, industry development trends, Talesun manufacturing capacity building, industry hot topics, large components and technical routes. The following is a summary of the relevant highlights of Energy One’s speech.

This year’s component prices: periodical rises and falls, generally stable

In terms of photovoltaic market forecasts: in fact, many companies signed a lot of long-term orders based on their own judgment last year. The overall price increase in the industry at the beginning of the year caused major changes in manufacturing costs, and many companies encountered many difficulties in fulfilling their contracts. Companies gritted their teeth and insisted that some companies negotiate a joint plan with their customers, and even some companies simply refuse to perform the contract. This has caused an industry-specific phenomenon this year. There is still a problem with the prediction of future prices.

Talesun’s judgment on the market this year is relatively cautious and conservative. The overall module prices will remain stable, and module prices will rise and fall periodically, but not too much. This is related to market demand, bottlenecks in the industrial chain, and the global economy following the epidemic.

Next year, when the shortcomings of the industry chain, especially silicon materials, are made up, the overall price of components will fall to a certain extent. Where is the next bottleneck in the industry chain? Obviously, from the fourth quarter of last year to the first quarter of this year, changes in the supply chain, flexible supply capabilities of enterprises, and strategic judgment capabilities are the most critical cost realization capabilities. We attach great importance to this and are gradually strengthening it.

In the course of our operations, we will also encounter many contradictions, such as rising raw materials, product quality, and product delivery dates. On the whole, Talesun Solar is a responsible and mission-oriented company, and its business strategy and quality policy are relatively conservative, because we hope to develop in this industry in a long-term and healthy manner. The company adheres to the bottom line of quality and pursues long-term development.

This year is the new year of Talesun’s photovoltaic capacity construction

This year is the new first year of Talesun Solar’s capacity construction. We have proposed a capacity construction plan of „the strong return”. This year, we will complete and add no less than 15GW of module capacity and 10GW of cell capacity. Next year, we will also build capacity. Continue to invest. In the future, Talesun’s strategy will be more focused, focusing on doing a good job in the photovoltaic manufacturing industry, and working with everyone to contribute Talesun’s strength to the development of the industry.

From the perspective of technical products, our newly-built cells capacity is still PERC, and can even be compatible with larger 230-size silicon wafers. In terms of production capacity design, considering the flexible space for further upgrades, I think the PERC platform has considerable potential. There is no doubt that PERC is very competitive as a mainstream production capacity and is still the best LCOE component solution at present. In the second half of the year, we will complete the development of heterojunction components, which is also a very promising technical route. At present, the industrial ecology is still being further established, and it will take some time to work with outstanding companies in the industry. For example, based on low-cost metallization technology, the localization of high-quality target materials, and the localization of better and low-cost PECVD equipment, these industrial ecological issues have been very clear, and excellent companies are also working hard. Talesun will take the lead on the component side, strengthen channel construction, and launch heterojunction components as soon as possible for special markets.

The product features such as high efficiency and low temperature coefficient of heterojunction components are valuable in some application scenarios. As far as heterojunction is concerned, there is little talk about large size at present. Everyone focuses on how to achieve high efficiency and higher power generation capacity. This is a more meaningful topic. No matter what time you say photovoltaics have entered the zero era, but ignoring the area and simply talking about power, this is of little significance.

The new capacity we are currently planning to build is compatible with relatively large silicon wafer sizes and has a certain degree of flexibility. As we all know, the flexibility is not free. This is the choice under the background that the size of silicon wafer cells has not yet been fully finalized. In addition, we have reserved some space to prepare for future TopCon upgrades. TOPCon is more friendly to inventory capacity. My personal opinion is that the rapid introduction of certain immature technologies is not conducive to the healthy development of the industry. The replacement of large-scale production capacity in the past year will eliminate tens of billions of equipment, of which a considerable proportion of the eliminated equipment has a short service life. This wastes a lot of industry resources.

At present, TOPCon is more friendly and the industrial ecology is relatively sound from the standpoint of the existing hardware production capacity. However, both HJT and TOPCon are high-efficiency cells solutions. The goal is to achieve lower LCOE and BOS. It is more beneficial to the healthy development of the industry.

How to look at large size and large components

Large size and large components should be divided into two concepts to discuss. First of all, everyone must remember the risks that 3A backplanes bring to the entire industry. I have worked in top companies in the industry, such as Trina Solar and JinkoSolar. Their rigorous quality assessment system is crucial to the control of product systemic risks. I hope that the whole industry will work together to focus on quality-based cost, quality-based innovation, and efficiency-based power. The photovoltaic industry will do a lot to achieve the big goal of „3060”. This road is not smooth. I hope that all entrepreneurs who are interested in the photovoltaic industry will have a firm strategic determination and do not do it with profit today, and switch to other things tomorrow. In the industry, I strongly recommend that you focus on your own professional fields and keep accumulating, and profits will naturally come.

Let’s talk about large-size cells, silicon wafers, and components. This is actually two different things. I do not deny large-size silicon wafers and cells, but large-size components are questionable.

A customer asked us: „Can you help us do 78 pieces of 210?” Let’s calculate: the size of 60 pieces is about 2.7 square meters, so how big is the 78 pieces, the single piece will be about 3.5 square meters . Of course, this is an extreme example. Whether it is 210 or 182 or another size, there are still differences in industry perceptions, but it is more hoped that everyone will return to the essence of the problem. The discussion should start with LCOE, which is photovoltaic modules. Essential energy properties!

In today’s salon, everyone talked about two points: First, it started with LCOE and BOS. I believe you have no objection to this point. However, if the thinking about size starts with LCOE and BOS, from the design of components, taking into account the technology and cost of the entire industry chain, technological progress brings about the evolution of the cost structure, I believe there will be an answer soon.

When the industry has not yet achieved standardization, for this example, in the process of size changes in the past two years, as Mr. Li Gang, President of Seraphim, mentioned: After changing a size, the component end will sacrifice tens of billions of equipment. Cells equipment will also leave the market, as do crystal pulling, slicing, etc. Is this a major waste for the development of the industry?

Second, third-party organizations in the industry must constantly remind the reliability of products. When we promote a product, we cannot only promote the positive value of the product. When the specifications change, there are also negative values and even risks, especially in extreme application scenarios of the product. I also hope that industry media, third-party certification and testing institutions, and even industry-leading companies will take up industry responsibilities.

The size is really not the bigger the better, that’s for sure. However, with the development of our technology, the size of silicon wafers and cells are dynamic in my opinion. Some industry experts mentioned that the increase in load test hot spot test probability may be related to the larger size. However, with the continuous optimization of the design and process of the cell and component packaging industry segment, the improvement of manufacturing equipment will gradually solve it. We expect that the industry can standardize faster, and standardization based on the cost of value innovation is essential to the healthy development of the industry.

The diversity of the earth’s climate and the diversity of photovoltaic application scenarios are destined to be extremely difficult to accurately assess the reliability of products with current methods. In a large number of actual combat scenarios, there may be no problem, and the risk factors of each scenario are also different. There are still differences between the accelerated aging simulation in the laboratory and the real application. I have repeatedly emphasized that the test standard is only the entry standard, but the basis , We adhere to a relatively conservative quality strategy.

With the development of the industry, there will be more and more good standards and good specifications. The „standardization” here is not only the standardization of product design, but also not only the standardization of raw materials, including auxiliary materials, but also the standardization of testing. Moreover, standardization is not uniform, and it is hoped that tests in typical extreme applications can be used to design products in a targeted manner. The type of product is no longer „one test, one type of product hits the world”, it may be for products with typical applications, so that the industry can develop better.